The current climate of the US elections is a great argument for the divorce of politics and religion. First, there was the pastor Wright debacle, which dogged Obama and undeniably hurt him, possibly more than charges of inexperience; both issues may irritate precisely those voters who he needs to keep on side. Recently, it was John McCain’s turn. An old sermon of Rev John Hagee was dredged up, in which the pastor claimed the holocaust was part of a ‘divine plan’. The viable back and forth over Hagee continues, but the McCain camp has already been forced to cut ties, hardened by several run-ins with right-wing talk show hosts and (one imagines) Obama’s experience with Wright. (More practice may be ahead.)
Hagee had endorsed McCain, much like John Edwards recently endorsed Obama; but are these religious endorsements worth more than their political cousins? Is a congregation more easily swayed than a constituency, given that its whole reason for being is faith? Or does it just depend on the man and, as one would say in marketing, his ‘reach’? There isn’t much water between the two with Obama, whose campaign still has the trappings of a religious movement, albeit one that has faced its fair share of days in the desert.
Perhaps a more interesting question is who the ‘others’ are, still polling votes in the primaries (and I don’t mean the third party outsiders). One of the most significant is former Democratic hopeful John Edwards who, despite having withdrawn from the contest on January 30, continues to do well with voters. In Alabama he picked up 1 per cent of the vote, but wait; six days on, and his discontinued campaign picked up steam on Super Tuesday with 5 per cent in Arizona, 4 per cent in California and a mighty 10 per cent in Oklahoma.
People voting for candidates that have withdrawn at the last minute is one thing (see O’Connor, Matt), but Edwards’ remarkable streak continued, recording a whopping 7 per cent in West Virginia a full three-and-a-half months after quitting the race. Even after his endorsement of Barack Obama, the Edwards Express trundled on, picking up 2 per cent in Kentucky. Had this small block listened to their leader and backed Obama, Clinton would still have won by a landslide – but this begs two questions:
1) Why are people voting for him? Seven per cent of West Virginia is a lot of people, as is four per cent of California. Is it ignorance, do ballot papers remain unchanged, or is it a protest, or a show of faith for Edwards as a VP for Obama? Edwards is the only one who continued to poll this late into the race (Mitt Romney pulls a similar trick in the Republican contest, and is a potential VP for McCain.) Some very long odds on Edwards being the candidate are shortening a little, so I suppose it’s not over until the convention, and if Obama were to be assassinated on an Obama / Edwards ticket, would Edwards become the nominee? Grisly and unlikely thinking, but clearly something is keeping the betbots up at night. On the Republican side, presumably it is John McCain’s age.
2) Endorsements aren’t all they’re cracked up to be, even from John Edwards.
It would be remiss not to mention Ron Paul, who has written a book to remind us all he still exists and who – according to the bookies – is more likely to take the Republican nomination than Edwards is to take the Democratic. Which perhaps serves to remind us how implausible this all is.
News hour, with Jerry Caesar 