When interviewed by Larry King, Michelle Obama said she believed that the Bradley effect was not in play for her husband’s campaign. This is open to question. The famed effect, much-mentioned since Barack Obama secured the nomination, runs thus: in 1982, Tom Bradley, an African American then mayor of Los Angeles, was running to be governor of California. Polls during voting put him clearly ahead (King recalls 65 per cent of voters claiming allegiance), but his Republican opponent won a narrow victory. Why?
Bradley was not an unpopular man – he served LA as mayor for twenty years. Assuming the problem was not the polling, why would people claim to support him, and then not do so? The obvious answer is unspoken racism, one perhaps subconsciously fuelling some of the increasingly hostile Republican rallies of late (speculation, understand). Also, when asked a socially sensitive question by a pollster – especially in a city as defined by race as LA – some will want to give the more socially acceptable answer, even if you’ve just emerged from the privacy of the voting booth having done the exact opposite.
This is not necessarily racism; said voter might just prefer the other guy (or gal), as is their right. When people are quizzed about their TV viewing habits, they claim to like documentaries, but the viewing figures (except the more celebrity focused polemics on the British terrestrial channels) don’t bear this out. Entertainment always wins over fact, in TV. As such with politics, especially in troubled times, people will choose the safer option. The question is, which is safer? A 72-year-old white man with extensive experience and an irascible nature – or a younger black man with a flair for nuance, from a party that isn’t so closely associated with the current economic downturn?
One alarm bell for Obama rings from the primaries, when Hillary Clinton frequently led the popular vote; Obama fared better in the closed debates of the caucuses rather than the open voting. It was in the latter where Clinton, with her blue collar spunk, would fire up the electorate. The United States isn’t California, and this isn’t the 1980s – but Obama remains truly untested at the ballot box or Clinton wouldn’t have been so successful.
UPDATE: It was , of course, off.