ELECTION 08: Winds of change, blown by whom? Bloomberg waits in the wings as Democrats twist

Of all the Presidential candidates, Barack Obama is the one whose image is most significantly debated, and frequent are the attacks:

“Obama runs the risk of being wussified”, remarked James Carville, the former (Bill) Clinton campaign strategist known as the Ragin’ Cajun.

“Barack Obama had to defend himself against charges that he is really a Muslim” remarked Fox News radio at the weekend – a ridiculous statement which equated being a Muslim with delivering the White House into the hands of Osama.

Both sources, arguably, have axes to grind. Still, perhaps the more important issue at play is whether what Obama is saying actually means anything. Rhetoric is a powerful tool, and a necessary step in whipping up a disillusioned populace – but, moving beyond the talk and the general need for change (now nearly a cliché) how will this change occur? If we are talking about an early pull-out for Iraq, would such a move be undertaken irrespective of whether withdrawing the troops would leave the country in a worse state than it is at the time? Would such a move not dishonour the sacrifices of the soldiers who have died there? News Hour have not been there, so could not say.

What does it mean to say ‘changing the way we do business in Washington’. Lobbyists? Unilateral action? Trade protectionism? People have this idea that the Democrats can wave a wand and everything will be hunky dory – or that if the Republicans had never been involved in anything it would all be absolutely fine, like the situation between Labour and Conservative in Britain, 1997. The notion of change can itself be more powerful than its agents – but if the Democrats go on the way they are, they may not be the ones to do it.

As it stands at, the party is no closer to deciding its candidate after Super Tuesday, while the Republicans are solidifying their position. If no decision is made until the Democratic convention later this year, it will leave them with a matter of months to campaign against an entrenched McCain, whose liberal tendencies place him on similar footing to the Gubernator – a Republican who was acceptable as a leader to California, the Actor’s State. (Not to mention to one of the Kennedys in marriage.)

Having the time advantage in Florida didn’t do Rudy Giuliani any good (and we might be singing an entirely different tune if it had) but one suspects a national campaign will be a different kettle of fish. The light in which this will allow the Republicans to portray the quarrelling Democrats – especially if the tone sinks again, as it did before Super Tuesday – could easily count against them. Barack Obama’s track record leaves you with little doubt that his intentions are good, but having to prove how he might go about implementing them, especially against a veteran like McCain, could be an issue.

Let’s not forget the trial of Obama’s alleged associate Antoin “Tony” Rezko for fraud, extortion and money laundering in a couple of weeks – and that Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York and strong on the economy, has some very deep pockets – and until March to register as an independent candidate.

Interesting times are ahead, that’s for sure.

ELECTION 08: Live free or Die Hard in Florida

Congratulations were in order this morning on The Today Programme, as John Humphrys announced a victory in the Florida primary for ‘Senator John McClane’, the NYPD tough nut usually famed for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. ‘I’m just a fly in the ointment, Hans. A monkey in the wrench’, McClane was heard to remark to international tea-leaf Hans Gruber during the incident at the Nakatomi Plaza in 1988.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Rudy Giuliani’s strategy of not campaigning anywhere but the Geriatric State earned him very few votes indeed, and suggested an arch-capitalist motivation for his candidacy. Did the former mayor of New York simply put his hat into the ring to profit from selling a wide array of merchandise (including hats, T-shirts, party packs, magnets, ‘Louisville Slugger’ baseball bats (a souvenir from the streets of New York), tumblers, golf balls, cufflinks, children’s bibs (one wonders if Democrats might buy them to see baby vomit on Guiliani’s face), etc etc)? Were all those people who faithfully pressed the ‘Donate’ button on Join Rudy dot com merely adding to the hardliner’s vacation fund?

He’ll quit tomorrow, then announce he’s opening a bar in the Maldives. Take a flight to visit him, you’ll find the old devil rolling in money, serving drinks through 100 dollar bills and wearing a straw hat weaved from treasury bonds – his sides fairly splitting at the humour of the situation. As if the man who single-handedly cleaned up New York could be guilty of such large-scale strategic incompetence.

Poor John Edwards – he certainly missed the boat on that one. Maybe there’s an Odd Couple-style sitcom on their varying fortunes in tax exile.